Friday, October 10, 2008

Our Outlook For The RV Transport Industry

It's no secret, the last year has been tough on the RV industry with motorized (motorhomes) taking the biggest hit. Starting with fuel prices and then moving to the economy slow down and now the credit crunch, it's been a rough ride to say the least. But there is light at the end of the tunnel and it's starting to get brighter.

Actually when we speak of the RV Transport industry we are speaking of the RV industry in general. What happens to the RV Transport industry is a direct result of what is happening with the RV industry as a whole.

We have been telling our clients for quite some time that this was going to be a hurricane type problem. The first wave would hit (high fuel prices with an economy slow down), the eye would come ashore (everyone getting use to the prices and slowdown with money belts loosening), then the backside of the storm would hit which would be the most devastating (the markets and banks taking a dive making money tight).

From the onset of high fuel prices manufacturers came to the realization that business as normal must change. The industry must be reinvented! What does this all mean? Well it's gonna take more than fancy marketing, and all indications reflect that the manufacturers know this and are taking action.

Currently the manufacturers are backing up a bit, instead of the bigger is better attitude which has prevailed in the industry for years it's beginning to go retro with all the trimmings. Smaller, lighter and loaded with all the amenities buyers love. This is an appropriate first step.

I believe that the manufacturers will also come up with a plan for financing as well. As we tread through the backside of the storm and its aftermath, most will find it difficult if not impossible to get an RV financed. A year ago a credit score of around 600 could get you in, I won't be surprised if it takes at least a 700 to be considered.

Knowing this the companies will have to find some type of creative financing to keep the cash flowing. If not sales will continue their decline, dealerships will cut-back or close and layoffs or plant closures will be imminent. If I know this I know the manufacturers do.

As such the industry will do more than just apply band-aides they will have solutions. Now that the slow season is upon us the change can begin. From last word we have received look for the industry to start showing life again in February '09.

Will next year be better? Most definitely. Fuel prices will be stable, manufacturers that have survived will be stronger, dealers will be buying more, old "new" units will be heavily discounted and the country as a whole will be ready for a vacation.